🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."